Association of Bay Area Governments
ABAG recently released their Projections 2009: What If? publication. This publication is produced periodically, but for this update, ABAG created two alternative scenarios that describe how the region may develop.
The first scenario called Scattered Success, local and regional policy makers have made limited progress in developing more transportation-efficient projects. However, thousands of additional acres of low-density, auto-dependent, single-use neighborhoods were added to the urban footprint. Transit remains unavailable in many parts of the region and walking is nearly impossible in most places.
The second scenario is called Focused Future. In this scenario, policy makers came together to create an incredible amount of region-wide development and redevelopment around light and heavy rail stations, major bus stops and ferry terminals. Transportation services were extended and improved and many connections are seamless. Existing, auto-dependent suburbs have been transformed into walkable downtowns and mixed-use neighborhoods, where more housing and businesses have located. Walking, biking and transit use is the norm.
So how does this Projections 2009: What If? related to Marin as part of ABAG’s region?
SCATTERED SUCCESS
Here, well over one-quarter of one million people are projected to live in Marin County by 2035; 25,000 more than today. Marin’s growth is to be limited by its large older population. Nearly 40 percent of the population is projected to be over the age of 60, compared to only 14 percent in 1980. Access, mobility, and independent living become dominant concerns with few solutions in sight. Local communities take matters into their own hands by instituting free shuttles, meals on wheels programs, etc. while high gas prices make these programs prohibitive for most cities to operate in the long term. San Rafael and Novato are projected to remain the largest and most urbanized cities. These cities will account for 48 percent of the county’s projected population.
FOCUSED FUTURE
Under this scenario, 7,200 less people are projected to live in Marin County. Marin’s growth is still limited by the aging population, but also by its limited transit options and smaller job base. San Rafael and Novato are still projected to be the largest urbanized communities. New train stations, as well as pedestrian and bike trails accommodate the area.
SO WHAT’S THE IMPACT?
Projections 2009: What If? contains more detail on Marin County and the other counties areas in ABAG’s region on the impact of these projects on driving, carbon monoxide emissions, daily particulate matter, and more. For more information, visit the ABAG site and download the full publication at http://www.abag.ca.gov/rss/pdfs/whatif.pdf.
